According to the Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) “Climate change is influencing the frequency and severity of dangerous bushfire conditions in Australia and other regions of the world, including through influencing temperature, environmental moisture, weather patterns and fuel conditions. There have been significant changes observed in recent decades towards more dangerous bushfire weather conditions for various regions of Australia”.
The BOM also notes that observed changes in southern and eastern Australia include more extreme conditions during summer, as well as an earlier start to the bushfire season with dangerous weather conditions occurring significantly earlier in spring than they used to. “These trends towards more dangerous bushfire conditions are at least partly attributable to human-caused climate change, including through increased temperatures”.
In a recent ABC report, when asked how the bushfire risk would change in the next 10 to 100 years, and whether there would be more extreme or catastrophic fire weather days, Tasmania Fire Service Director of Community Safety, Sandra Whight replied “It is really likely to change, it is going to increase”.
In addition, the Bushfires and Natural Hazards Cooperative Research Centre Australia (BNHCRC) has developed the seasonal bushfire outlook for southern Australia. This map indicates areas of bushfire potential with red being above normal and yellow being normal.
Many metropolitan and regional non-government schools will be found in the areas of the map identified as being ‘above normal’ for bushfire potential for August 2019.
Using information gleaned following the recent and ongoing bushfires in New South Wales, Queensland and Western Australia in November and December 2019, and based on the seasonal bushfire outlook map for southern Australia, there is no doubt that all schools need to be prepared for bushfires and the raft of potential life-threatening hazards that can accompany them. More than 600 schools were closed on 12th November in New South Wales based on the catastrophic fire threat on that day.
Schools set in suburban landscapes can also be affected by bushfires if they are in proximity to public open space or small pockets of undeveloped land.
In 2016, Sydney-based Fire and Rescue NSW and member of the Firefighters Climate Alliance, Jim Casey was reported as saying “What is really very clear is that the conditions for a catastrophic fire are in place and we expect these conditions to continue in a warmer climate. It becomes not a question of if but a question of when we will be seeing devastating bushfires.”
Clearly not a lot has changed in the predictions and the bushfires are not just continuing, they are increasing in “frequency and severity”.
The BOM defines the catastrophic or Code Red fire rating as follows:
The highest category of Fire Danger Rating is Catastrophic except in Victoria where it is called Code Red. Tasmania depicts the Catastrophic FDR with the colour Black.
The Department of Fire Services (DFES) in most states and territories defines it as follows:
When the Fire Danger Rating is Extreme or Catastrophic for your area, any fires that start will be extremely hard for fire authorities to control. Even a well prepared, well-constructed and actively defended home may not survive.
In Western Australia, the DFES goes one step further and states:
If this sort of weather is expected you should leave the day or hours before a fire might threaten as this is the best option for your survival”
Each state and territory has its own requirements for government schools in the event that a catastrophic or “Code Red” (Vic) fire rating has been called. Examples from around the country include:
Schools need to check with their relevant association or overarching governing body to ascertain if they are required to be closed on Catastrophic or Code Red fire days.
Regardless, all schools, government or non-government, should plan for pre-emptive closures on days when the fire weather rating is determined to be catastrophic or Code Red. The safest option for all bushfires is to leave early, before a bushfire threatens your school and the staff and children - preferably the day before. This is the key determiner in the saving of lives. Infrastructure can be re-built or replaced. Lives cannot.
In 2017 we published a similar article in School Governance. The suggestions for schools that we published then are re-printed here with updated links.
What should schools be doing as a minimum during a heightened summer bushfire season?
According to the BOM “Bushfire weather conditions in future years are projected to increase in severity for many regions of Australasia, including due to more extreme heat events, with the rate and magnitude of change increasing with greenhouse gas concentrations (and emissions)”.
In the report, Living in a Land of Fire, the authors note “Fires are an inherent part of the Australian environment. They cannot be prevented, but the risks they pose to life, health, property and infrastructure, production systems, and to environment values can be minimised through systematic evaluation and strategic planning and management”.
According to the Council of Australian Governments (COAG) National Inquiry on Bushfire Mitigation and Management document “A structured risk management process, consistent with the Australian Risk Management Standard, offers the best framework for making strategic and operational decisions about bushfire mitigation and management”.
The bushfire risk management process, as part of a school’s total enterprise risk management system, provides a framework for the effective management of bushfire (and bushfire related) threats in schools and it accommodates the changing climate and weather patterns. A risk management process focuses the school’s attention on both the threats and the emergencies/critical incidents and on the context in which these are set within the school. Schools that may be directly affected by bushfires, smoke or indirectly through losses of enrolments due to fires need to heed this advice.
The School Governance Team would like to recognise the significance of the responses to the November/December 2019 bush fire crisis by hundreds of schools. Keeping everyone safe is at the heart of good school governance, risk management and compliance. What are the consequences if you have a bushfire risk and you choose to ignore it?